Le Gros Bon Sens arrive en ville!

Le bon sens est la chose du monde la mieux partagée : car chacun pense en être si bien pourvu, que ceux même qui sont les plus difficiles à contenter en toute autre chose, n'ont point coutume d'en désirer plus qu'ils en ont. (Descartes, Discours de la méthode)

Flushons Legault!

Posted on | février 22, 2012 | 11 Comments

ADQ – Deuxième partie. Voici comment un documentaire sur la CAQ pourrait s’intituler. Ou plutôt, pour reprendre la parlure propre aux animateurs de certaines émissions radiophoniques de la Vieille Capitale: The ADQ, Part Two! Les déboires des troupes de François Legault faisant la manchette par les temps qui courent, voyons un peu si les similitudes peuvent être poussées plus loin.

Flashback sur 2006: le gouvernement libéral, dans un contexte difficile, refuse de déclencher des élections. Par contre, un chef péquiste dans la tourmente et contesté au sein de son propre parti, ainsi qu’une certaine remontée dans les sondages du PLQ incitent Jean Charest à tenter l’aventure. Ses appuis électoraux demeurent stables, tandis que la montée de l’ADQ vient gruger les votes du PQ, résultant en un premier gouvernement minoritaire provincial depuis belle lurette.

Le reste de l’histoire n’est guère plus édifiant: les adéquistes devenus opposition officielle révèlent rapidement leur amateurisme; leurs appuis fondent comme neige au soleil dès que la population se lasse de la crise des accommodements raisonnables. Jean Charest voit le vent tourner, déclare de nouvelles élections et s’empare encore une fois de la majorité absolue en 2008.

Retour en 2011-2012. Legault lance en grande pompe son parti malgré l’absence de position claire sur plusieurs enjeux, ce qui résulte en un slogan officieux repris avec joie par les médias: on verra. Ceci ne déplaît pas pour autant aux électeurs, qui embarquent massivement selon les sondages. Legault, qui a sans doute appris des essais et erreurs de Mario Dumont à la tête de l’ADQ (13 ans avant de parvenir à l’opposition officielle et à siéger presque seul sur les bancs de l’Assemblée Nationale, c’est long!) a bien pris soin de faire mousser la popularité de son non-parti avant son dévoilement officiel.

Malheureusement, Legault n’a pas appris des suites de l’histoire de l’ADQ: il faut bien contrôler son parti et présenter une approche cohérente et une apparence d’intelligence pour se maintenir au pouvoir. La défection de François Rebello a joué contre lui a plusieurs niveaux. La venue d’un souverainiste a non seulement rendu la CAQ antipathique à bien des électeurs fédéralistes, elle a de plus profondément divisé le parti. Certains députés peu disciplinés (dont Rebello) ne se sont pas gênés pour étaler sur la place publique leurs opinions sur différents sujets sans penser auparavant à se rallier autour d’une quelconque ligne de parti. L’absence d’une ligne de parti doit probablement être considérée comme un facteur aggravant, ici…

Surtout, le départ de Rebello du PQ a scié les jambes à certains adversaires de Pauline Marois. Rebello n’a jamais été dans les bonnes grâces de cette dernière; son passage à la CAQ a affaibli l’opposition au sein du Parti Québécois. La chef péquiste avait alors beau jeu de rallier ses troupes et d’isoler définitivement les contestataires.

Conséquemment, le vote fédéraliste se rallie graduellement à Jean Charest et une partie des électeurs qui voyaient en Legault un agent de changement crédible se sont rapidement désillusionnés et sont retournés au PQ. Legault a sans doute oublié que les électeurs aussi avaient appris une leçon de l’élection de 2007: la saveur du mois n’est pas toujours propre à gouverner.

Depuis décembre dernier, les intentions de vote pour les caquistes ont chuté de 37 à 28%, celles des libéraux et des péquistes ont remonté de 22% et 24% respectivement à 29% pour chaque parti. Les trois partis sont donc nez à nez dans les intentions de vote, mais pour combien de temps encore? Les doutes sont palpables: le Dr Gaetan Barrette, qui s’était payé une belle campagne de pub à saveur pré-électorale lors du Bye Bye, et dont les affinités avec la CAQ ne sont plus un secret, tarde à se lancer officiellement dans la course. Le terme girouette devrait-il refaire son entrée dans le vocabulaire politique provincial?

L’électorat québécois a-t-il trop bien retenu les leçons de 2007 (et, pourrait-on rajouter, de l’élection fédérale de 2011)? L’histoire d’amour avec la CAQ prendra-t-elle fin avant les prochaines élections provinciales? Tout est encore possible; la seule chose que l’on peut prédire à ce stade-ci est que, dans l’optique d’un gouvernement minoritaire peu importe le chef vainqueur des prochaines élections: les deux autres devront sans doute faire leurs valises au risque d’être expulsé par leur militants ou d’être réduit à néant lors de la prochaine élection générale.

Comments

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